GBIF enables global forecast of climate impacts on species
Climate change could dramatically reduce the geographic ranges of thousands of common plant and animal species during this century, according to research using data made freely available online through the Global Biodiversity Information Facility (GBIF).
Research ‘Quantifying the benefit of early climate change mitigation in avoiding biodiversity loss’, published on 12th May 2013 in the journal Nature Climate Change, looked at nearly 50,000 globally widespread and common species and found that nearly two-thirds of the plants and almost half of animal species could lose more than half of their climatic range by 2080 if nothing is done to limit greenhouse gas emissions. However, acting quickly to mitigate climate change could reduce losses by 60 per cent and buy an additional 40 years for species to adapt, the research concludes.
The study, by researchers in the United Kingdom, Australia and Colombia, defined the climate ‘niche’ occupied by each species, based on temperature and rainfall where they live now, and mapped the areas that would remain suitable for them according to various scenarios of future climate change.
The information on the current location of common species of plants, mammals, birds, reptiles and amphibians was taken from around 170 million individual data records published freely online through GBIF by some 200 different institutions around the world. The records include museum specimens, data from scientific expeditions and the observations of thousands of volunteer ‘citizen scientists’.
One of the co-authors of the study, Jeff Price of the University of East Anglia’s School of Environmental Sciences, United Kingdom, said: “Without free and open access to massive amounts of data such as those made available online through GBIF, no individual researcher is able to contact every country, every museum, every scientist holding the data and pull it all together. So this research would not be possible without GBIF and its global community of researchers and volunteers who make their data freely available.”
According to the research, plants, reptiles and especially amphibians are expected to be at highest risk from climate change. The climate will become especially unsuitable for both plant and animal species in Sub-Saharan Africa, Central America, Amazonia and Australia. A major loss of plant species is also projected for North Africa, Central Asia and South-eastern Europe.
The lead author of the study, Dr Rachel Warren, also from UEA’s School of Environmental Sciences and the Tyndall Centre, said: “While there has been much research on the effect of climate change on rare and endangered species, little has been known about how an increase in global temperature will affect more common species. This broader issue of potential range loss in widespread species is a serious concern as even small declines in these species can significantly disrupt ecosystems. Our research predicts that climate change will greatly reduce the diversity of even very common species found in most parts of the world. This loss of global-scale biodiversity would significantly
impoverish the biosphere and the ecosystem services it provides. The good news is that our research provides crucial new evidence of how swift action to reduce CO2 and other greenhouse gases can prevent the biodiversity loss by reducing the amount of global warming to 2 degrees Celsius rather than 4 degrees. This would also buy time – up to four decades – for plants and animals to adapt to the remaining 2 degrees of climate change.”
Media attention
GBIF recently featured in the Science in Action Programme on BBC World Service radio, in the wake of the recent Nature Climate Change study mentioned above.
You can access the item on the BBC website.
Modelling the future for marine species in the North Sea under climate change
Jones, M.C. et al., 2013. Predicting the Impact of Climate Change on Threatened Species in UK Waters. PloS one, 8(1), p.e54216.
This study by researchers in the United Kingdom, United States and Canada used a range of different models to explore the potential impact of climate change on marine species in the North Sea by 2050. The data used for the study included more than 5,000 records of 18 fish and crustacean species accessed via GBIF, including commercially targeted species like Norway lobster (Nephrops norvegicus) and Atlantic cod (Gadus morhua), and critically endangered species such as angelshark (Squatina squatina) and common skate (Dipturus batis).
The study projected that on average, species would move northwards by approximately 27km each decade. The researchers found there would be relatively small changes in the overlap of ranges between commercially exploited and threatened species, easing concerns about possible increases in accidental catches of rare species due to climate change. The study also predicted only small adverse consequences from climate change on the ability of marine protected areas to provide suitable habitat for the threatened species.
However, the models used by the researchers showed wide variations in the projections for individual species, and the authors argue that this shows the value of using multiple models to construct best and worst case scenarios, and apply a precautionary approach to protecting the marine environment given the uncertain response of threatened species in the face of climate change.
The study was funded by the Centre for Environment, Fisheries and Aquaculture Science (CEFAS) of the Department for Environment, Food and Rural Affairs (Defra) as part of the Adapting to Climate Change in the Marine Environment (ACME) project; the National Geographic Society, and the Natural Sciences and Engineering Research Council of Canada.
The lead author of the study, Miranda Jones of CEFAS and the University of East Anglia, commented: “I do consider GBIF to be a very important source of data in this study and for species distribution modelling that uses presence only techniques in general. This is because it provides a source of occurrence data on many species for which little may be known concerning their biological or ecological preferences. It also enables people to study species' distributions for scales or areas which might otherwise be limited by logistics and cost.”
The NBN is the UK node of GBIF, with the NBN Gateway currently holding almost 90 million species records.
Seasearch Data can provide a valuable contribution to understanding of biodiversity, climate change and aquatic ecosystem health
A paper has just been published in the scientific journal Aquatic Ecosystem Health and Management which provides further support for the use of volunteer data after looking at Seasearch data.
The paper’s authors, led by Jim Bull of University of Warwick, himself a Seasearcher, used benthic species abundance records (2003–2009) collected by volunteer divers through Seasearch to investigate coastal biodiversity patterns around the United Kingdom and Ireland.
The first aim was to assess the utility of volunteer data as a baseline for monitoring environmental change. Separation of the influences of within-and between-surveyor variation from broadscale (year, latitude, longitude) and finer scale (month,depth, local habitat) biogoegraphical factors was achieved using a multilevel mixed effects framework. A high degree of consistency within surveyors was evident and, by modelling between-surveyor variations efficiently, expected trends in species richness and taxonomic distinctness were recovered.
Moving from patterns to processes, the second aim was to test the effects of sea surface temperature on prevalence, on a species by species basis. This approach allowed identification of species likely to display range shifts in direct response to future warming trends.
The paper in full can be downloaded from the journal’s website at cost, or contact SeaSearch and they will put you in touch with the authors.
You can read more about how data from the NBN Gateway are being used in practical ways by visiting the Data Use pages.